Ukraine has said it is ready to accept an immediate 30-day ceasefire with Russia proposed by the US, after a day of US-Ukraine talks in Saudi Arabia.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said he would present the offer to Russia and that “the ball is in their court”.

Ukraine’s President Volodomyr Zelensky said it was now up to the US to convince Russia to agree to the “positive” proposal.

Tuesday’s talks in Jeddah were the first official meeting between the two countries since the extraordinary clash between Zelensky and US President Donald Trump in the Oval Office.

In a joint statement, the US also said it would immediately restart intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine, which Washington had suspended after the unprecedented meeting.

“Both delegations agreed to name their negotiating teams and immediately begin negotiations toward an enduring peace that provides for Ukraine’s long-term security,” the US-Ukraine statement said.

Rubio told a press conference in Jeddah late on Tuesday that he hoped Russia would accept the proposal.

Ukraine was “ready to stop shooting and start talking,” he said, and if Russia rejected the offer “then we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here”.

“Today we made an offer that the Ukrainians have accepted, which is to enter into a ceasefire and into immediate negotiations,” he said.

“We’ll take this offer now to the Russians and we hope they’ll say yes to peace. The ball is now in their court,” he added.

The offer of a 30-day ceasefire goes beyond Zelensky’s proposal for a partial truce in the sea and sky.

The Ukrainian president thanked Trump for “the constructiveness” of the talks in Jeddah.

In a video message, Zelensky said Russia had to “show its willingness to stop the war or continue the war”.

“It is time for the full truth,” he added.

Moscow has not yet responded. The Kremlin said earlier on Tuesday it would issue a statement after being briefed by Washington on the outcome of the talks.

Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Moscow currently controls about 20% of Ukrainian territory.

At the White House, Trump told reporters he would speak with President Putin, who would “hopefully” agree to the proposal.

“It takes to two tango, as they say,” Trump said, adding he hoped the deal would be agreed in the next few days.

“We have a big meeting with Russia tomorrow, and some great conversations hopefully will ensue.”

He added that he was open to inviting Zelensky back to Washington.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said Russia had not ruled out talks with US representatives in the next few days, according to Russia’s state-owned news agency Tass.

Asked by a reporter if Trump and Zelensky’s relationship was “back on track,” Rubio said he hoped it was “peace” that was back on track.

“This is not Mean Girls, this is not some episode of some television show” he said.

“Today people will die in this war, they died yesterday and – sadly – unless there’s a ceasefire, they will die tomorrow.”

The US and Ukrainian teams met after overnight drone attacks killed at least three people in Moscow – which Russia said showed Ukraine had rejected using diplomacy to end the war.

Trump and Zelensky have also agreed to finalise “as soon as possible” a critical minerals deal, the joint statement said.

Ukraine has offered to grant the US access to its rare earth mineral reserves in exchange for US security guarantees – but this was derailed by the White House row.

Rubio said the deal had not been the subject of Tuesday’s talks, but had been negotiated with Ukrainian and US treasuries.

The US delegation in Jeddah also included US national security advisor Mike Waltz and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

Witkoff is due to travel to Russia in the coming days, a source familiar with the planning told the BBC, although this could change quickly.

The joint US-Ukraine statement said Kyiv had “reiterated” that Europe should be involved in any peace process.

The shift in America’s approach to the war – which has included locking Europe out of talks – has prompted several emergency meetings between European leaders in recent weeks.

The EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the bloc welcomed Tuesday’s “positive development”.

Achieving a swift end to the war in Ukraine has been a key pledge for the US president.

He has placed increasing pressure on Zelensky to accept a ceasefire, without offering the immediate security guarantees insisted upon by the Ukrainian president.

On Friday, Trump issued a rare threat of further sanctions against Moscow in a push for a deal. Russia is already heavily sanctioned by the US over the war.

Trump said he was contemplating the move because “Russia is absolutely ‘pounding’ Ukraine on the battlefield right now”.

Meanwhile, the war continued on the ground on Tuesday.

Three men were killed in the Moscow region in what was described as the largest drone attack on the Russian capital since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.

A further 18 people, including three children, were injured, health officials told Russian media.

The Russian defence ministry said 337 drones were intercepted over Russia and 91 of them were shot down over the Moscow region.

Ukrainian officials reported Russian drone attacks on the capital Kyiv and several other regions.

Ukraine’s air force said it had shot down 79 of 126 drones launched by Russia, as well as an Iskander-M ballistic missile.

It was not immediately clear whether there were any casualties.

Good morning and welcome back to FirstFT Asia. In today’s newsletter we’re covering:

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Ukraine has said it is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in its war with Russia, prompting Washington to agree to resume military assistance to Kyiv.

The proposed ceasefire, which Russia has yet to agree to, was announced in a joint statement that capped several hours of talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

Washington said it would immediately restore deliveries of weapons and ammunition and end its suspension of intelligence-sharing, which Kyiv feared would seriously hamper its ability to detect and hit targets beyond the battlefield.

US President Donald Trump said he hoped Russia would agree to the ceasefire. “Ukraine has agreed to it, and hopefully Russia will agree to it,” Trump told reporters outside the White House.

Read the latest on today’s talks in Jeddah.

Here’s what else I’m watching today:

• US tariffs on steel and aluminium: Tariffs of 25 per cent will go into effect on steel and aluminium imports to the US, just hours after Trump backed down from plans to double tariffs on Canadian steel and metal imports. More on the U-turn.

• Vietnam AI-Semiconductor conference: Attendees are expected to include executives from Google DeepMind, IBM, Intel, TSMC, Samsung, MediaTek, Tokyo Electron, Panasonic, Qorvo and Marvell.

• Opec data: The group’s monthly oil market report is due today.

• G7 foreign ministers meeting: Officials are set to meet in the Charlevoix region of Quebec.

Five more top stories

1. Nissan pushed out chief executive Makoto Uchida after growing calls for his resignation in the wake of deteriorating financial performance and the collapse of merger talks with rival Honda. The Japanese carmaker’s chief planning officer Ivan Espinosa will take over as chief executive in April. Here’s what the company said about the change at the top.

2. Former Philippines president Rodrigo Duterte has been arrested under an International Criminal Court warrant over a drug crackdown that resulted in thousands of deaths in the south-east Asian country. The former president’s daughter Sara Duterte, who is the current Philippine vice-president, said her father was being “forcibly taken to The Hague”. Read the full story.

3. Elon Musk has reached an agreement to introduce Starlink to India in a tie-up with local telecoms tycoon Sunil Mittal. The partnership between Musk’s SpaceX and Mittal’s Bharti Airtel pitches the duo against Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Jio as they bring satellite internet services to the world’s most populous nation.

4. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase will re-enter India after securing a key regulatory nod. It’s been given permission to register with India’s Financial Intelligence Unit, an anti-money laundering watchdog, and planned to start offering retail services later this year. The move is a sign of a thaw in the country’s hostility to digital coins following US President Donald Trump’s strong support for the assets.

5. Wall Street stocks sank on Tuesday, briefly pulling the S&P 500 into a so-called correction, as Trump’s latest trade broadside against Canada fanned investor fears over the economic fallout from his protectionist agenda. Read our full recap of yesterday’s market moves here.

Today’s big read

The UK’s two leading digital banks, Revolut and Monzo, are hoping to crack the US market as fintechs are once again attracting investment following a funding drought. But the push across the Atlantic is no easy feat. Here’s why.

We’re also reading and listening to . . . 

• ‘Inference’ computing: Nvidia’s rivals are focusing their efforts on how artificial intelligence is deployed to disrupt the world’s most valuable chipmaker.

• Unhedged: Investors have long been wary of China, piling into US markets, no matter what the climate. But is that changing? Robert Armstrong and Aiden Reiter explore this question on the Unhedged podcast. For more markets commentary, Premium subscribers can sign up for our Unhedged newsletter here. Or upgrade your subscription.

• Market tumult: Investors fear Donald Trump’s tolerance for a steep stock sell-off is far higher than it was in his first term.

Chart of the day

US President Donald Trump is pushing Prime Minister Narendra Modi to do what India for decades could not or would not do: lower the high tariff walls that have surrounded its economy since independence. But trade experts say the talks promise to be fraught and politically sensitive in New Delhi, especially when it comes to agriculture. 

Take a break from the news . . . 

The likes of Jack Dorsey, Cristiano Ronaldo, Gwyneth Paltrow and Dave Asprey seek self-optimisation with infrared longevity therapies — compact, next-generation saunas where the hot box potency comes from a spectrum of red and infrared light. With price tags ranging from £2,000 to £20,000, HTSI explored some of the hottest tech.

As US Secretary of State Marco Rubio says, “the ball is now in Russia’s court.” This is a significant moment.

The joint statement from the US and Ukraine, after a long day of talks in Jeddah, contains several key lines, perhaps none more important than this: “The United States will communicate to Russia that Russian reciprocity is the key to achieving peace.”

We’ve heard a lot, in recent weeks, about what Donald Trump expects from Ukraine and what sort of blunt instruments the White House is prepared to use to bend Kyiv to its will.

Now, it seems, it’s time for Russia’s intentions to be tested, in public.

Trump’s dealings with Vladimir Putin have so far been shrouded in uncertainty, with no obvious sign of pressure to balance that being exerted on Volodymyr Zelensky.

Tuesday’s joint US-Ukrainian statement doesn’t imply that Trump has suddenly changed his tune towards Zelensky. Theirs is a thorny relationship, born of many years of mutual mistrust.

But the ugly cloud of acrimony generated by that fractious Oval Office encounter 11 days ago may start to dissipate as the real business of peace-making gets under way.

With the immediate resumption of US intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine, after a suspension that lasted mere days, it’s Russia that may now be feeling the pressure.

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Ukraine has said it is ready to accept a US proposal for an immediate 30-day ceasefire in its war with Russia, prompting Washington to agree to resume military assistance to Kyiv.

The proposed ceasefire, which would still need to be agreed by Russia, was announced in a joint statement that capped several hours of talks between US and Ukrainian officials in Saudi Arabia.

Washington said it will immediately restore deliveries of weapons and ammunition and end its suspension of intelligence-sharing, which Kyiv feared would seriously hamper its ability to detect and hit targets beyond the battlefield.

The ceasefire, which could be extended with the agreement of both parties, would go beyond the partial truce suggested by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy before the crucial meeting with US officials in Jeddah.

That proposal was only intended to apply to long-range drone and missile strikes as well as military activities in the Black Sea.

Tuesday’s ceasefire plan comes hours after officials in Moscow reported the biggest-ever drone attack on the capital by Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, with more than 90 drones targeting the city and 343 downed in total across the country.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio, who led the US team, said: “Before you can negotiate, you have to stop shooting at each other.”

On Telegram, Zelenskyy said the US had proposed a “complete ceasefire for 30 days, not only regarding missiles, drones and bombs, not only in the Black Sea, but also along the entire front line”.

“Ukraine accepts this proposal, we consider it positive, we are ready to take such a step,” the Ukrainian president wrote.

“The US must convince Russia to do this,” he added.

US national security adviser Mike Waltz, who also took part in the Jeddah negotiations, said the two sides had discussed “substantive details” on how the war would permanently end.

This included “what guarantees they’re going to have for their long-term security and prosperity, but also really looking at what it’s going to take to finally end this”, Waltz said.

Waltz said President Donald Trump would “immediately” lift the US pause on aid and security assistance. Waltz added that he planned to speak with his Russian counterpart “in the coming days”.

Zelenskyy had long pushed back against a cessation of hostilities without arrangements for monitoring and enforcement and security guarantees to deter a further Russian attack, regarding it as a phoney deal that Moscow would exploit.

But his resistance angered Washington, culminating in a spectacular bust-up with Trump in the White House last month followed by the suspension of military aid and intelligence-sharing.

Zelenskyy sought to patch up relations by proposing a cessation of drone, missile and air strikes and a pause to all maritime operations. European officials said such a partial truce would be easier to monitor and enforce.

A senior Ukrainian official told the Financial Times from Jeddah that Kyiv was “OK with the ceasefire”, which now put the ball in Moscow’s court.

“The question is Russia — what are they ready for?” they added.

Speaking at an event with Elon Musk, Trump said he hoped Russia would agree to the ceasefire.

“Ukraine has agreed to it, and hopefully Russia will agree to it,” he said. Asked if Zelenskyy is invited back to the White House he added: “Sure, absolutely.”

Rubio said the US hopes “Russia will say yes”, so that “talks can begin about how to end this war permanently in a way that’s acceptable and enduring for both sides”.

The Ukrainian official said the delegations discussed the joint minerals extraction deal that was meant to be signed in Washington but was postponed after the acrimonious talks between Trump and Zelenskyy in the Oval Office.

“When [Washington is] ready [to sign the deal] — we are ready,” the official said.

Another Ukrainian official involved in negotiations over the minerals deal said that no amendments had been made since the FT first reported that an agreement had been reached by the two sides.

However, the official said that further negotiations would take place when drawing up the structure of the investment fund under the first agreement. 

Additional reporting by Christopher Miller in New York

Romanian far-right populist Calin Georgescu has lost his appeal against a ruling barring him from participating in May’s presidential election.

The Constitutional Court issued the final ruling on Tuesday afternoon after deliberating for two hours. It said the decision was unanimous.

The Central Electoral Bureau had earlier rejected Georgescu’s candidacy for a rerun of the presidential election in May.

Georgescu had won the first round of last year’s presidential vote, but it was annulled after intelligence revealed Russia had been involved in setting up almost 800 TikTok accounts backing him.

On Sunday, the election bureau said Georgescu’s candidacy did not “meet the conditions of legality”, as he “violated the very obligation to defend democracy”.

Georgescu appealed that verdict the following day.

In a Facebook video on Tuesday night, Georgescu did not call for further protests – but instead suggested supporters could choose another candidate to back in the re-run election in May.

“If you want to support anyone by signing new lists for the presidential campaign, please do as your conscience tells you,” he said. “It seems democracy and freedom are taking their last breath these days.

“But we need to show now, more than any other time, that our choice matters in a peaceful and democratic way,” Georgescu added.

Many of the protesters outside the court had Romanian flags draped around their shoulders. Some held up Orthodox Christian icons and one clutched a large wooden crucifix.

A man dressed in a traditional peasant smock scaled a lamppost with a giant Romanian flag and waved it enthusiastically over the crowd.

They chanted “Calin Georgescu is president” and “freedom”, and condemned the judges as traitors. One woman had a sign that read “Stop dictatorship”.

It took a while for news of the ruling upholding the ban to reach the crowd. When it did, there were loud “boos” directed at the judges inside.

The crowd soon became noisy and angry, saying they had come to the streets to defend democracy.

Calin Georgescu, the man they support, has come from the far-right fringes of Romanian politics, but he is now at the forefront and promises to make Romania great again.

On 26 February, he was detained for questioning on his way to register as a candidate for the May election, prompting tens of thousands of Romanians to take to the streets of Bucharest in protest.

Many Romanians believe he is being blocked by a political elite that is corrupt and remote from the people.

George Simion, an ally of Georgescu and the leader of the far-right opposition Alliance for Uniting Romanians (AUR) wrote on Facebook: “Shame! You will not defeat us. The people of Romania have awoken. They will win.”

The presidential election was annulled after Georgescu won the first round in November 2024, when intelligence was released suggesting a giant TikTok promotion campaign for Georgescu had been backed by Russia.

To European leaders and many in Romania it looked like Russia was trying to weaken Europe and undermine its liberal values.

That is still the opinion of many Romanians who fear a man who admires Vladimir Putin and dislikes Nato.

Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov said that suggestions that Russia had links to Georgescu were “absolutely baseless”.

Meanwhile, the crowd out on the streets of Bucharest on Tuesday evening were shouting about democracy and freedom. They were demanding the right to vote for Georgescu and they have been denied that.

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“We were at war with a dictator; now we are fighting against a dictator supported by a traitor.” Thus, in a brilliant speech, did Claude Malhuret, hitherto a little-known French senator, define the challenge of our age. He was right. We now know that the US and so the world have been transformed for the worse. But this should no longer be all that surprising. The doubt rather is over how Europe can and will respond.

In the 1970s, I had the good fortune to live and work in Washington DC. This was the era of Watergate. I watched the congressional hearings on the ill-doing of President Richard Nixon with admiration. It swiftly became evident that members of Congress of both parties took their obligation to protect the constitution both seriously and literally. Nixon was about to be impeached and convicted. Warned of this, he duly resigned.

Contrast this with the second impeachment of Donald Trump in February 2021 on the far greater crime of inciting an insurrection aimed at overturning the results of the 2020 presidential election. It is impossible for anybody sane to doubt his guilt. But only seven Republican senators voted for conviction. It was not enough. In letting him off, Congress killed the constitution. What has happened since that moment was predictable and predicted.

Since the 1970s the US has suffered a moral collapse from which it is unlikely to recover. We see this daily in what this administration is being allowed to do to US commitments, to allies, to the weak, to the press and to the law. My colleague John Burn-Murdoch has also shown that Maga attitudes are close to those of today’s Russians: power will not be yielded easily.

This is a truly historic catastrophe. But if the US is no longer a proponent and defender of liberal democracy, the only force potentially strong enough to fill the gap is Europe. If Europeans are to succeed with this heavy task, they must begin by securing their home. Their ability to do so will depend in turn on resources, time, will and cohesion.

Undoubtedly, Europe can substantially increase its spending on defence. While there has been a rise in the share of GDP spent on defence over the past decade in the 10 most populous EU countries, plus the UK and US, Poland is the only one that spends more than the US, relative to GDP. Fortunately, ratios of fiscal deficits and net debt to GDP of the EU27 are far lower than those of the US. Moreover, the purchasing power of the GDP of EU and UK together is bigger than that of the US and dwarfs Russia’s. In sum, economically, Europe has the resources, especially with the UK, even though it will need the reforms recommended by Mario Draghi last year if it is to catch up technologically. (See charts.)

Yet this economic potential cannot be turned into strategic independence from the US overnight. As the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies shows, European weaponry is too dependent on US products and technology for that to be possible. It will need a second and scarcer ingredient — time. This creates a vulnerability shown, most recently, by the feared impact of the cessation of US military support for Ukraine. Europe will struggle to supply what will be missing.

The third ingredient is will. Europeans have to want to defend the vaunted “European values” of personal freedom and liberal democracy. To do so will be economically costly and even dangerous. In Europe, too, rightwing elements with views similar to those of Maga Republicans exist, even if these are not as dominant on the conservative side of politics as in the US. But some countries — Hungary, Slovakia and maybe soon Austria — will have pro-Putin governments. Marine Le Pen in France has more than merely flirted with being pro-Putin in the past. Also frightening is the rise of the far right and far left of Germany. In short, Europe has “fifth columns” almost everywhere.

At the same time, some important European leaders and countries, Germany above all, are showing some will. In particular, Friedrich Merz, expected to be the next German chancellor, and his potential coalition partners agreed to amend the “debt brake” and spend hundreds of billions of euros on infrastructure and defence. Merz also said that Germany would do “whatever it takes” to fend off “threats to freedom and peace” in Europe. Yet will he deliver? The answer to that question is unclear.

Last but not least is the essential ingredient of cohesion. Unlike the US, China or Russia, Europe is not a state. Indeed, contrary to the hysteria of the British Brexiters, it is far from being a state. Its ability to act strategically is fundamentally hampered by the twin facts that it lacks a shared politics and shared finances. It is better seen as a club that needs a high degree of unanimity if it is to act effectively and legitimately in matters of foreign policy and defence. Europeans were free riders on the US because that was the natural thing for each of them to do. Unfortunately, much the same still applies if the US abandons them. Many members will be inclined to leave the burden to a few big powers. But even co-ordinating the policies and militaries of Germany, France and the UK will be hard, because this is to be done by a committee of rough equals — it lacks a leader.

In brief, we have an irresistible force and an immovable object: Trump’s unreliability is the force; and the difficulties in getting Europe to mobilise its will are the immovable object. Moreover, overcoming the latter has to be done quickly. Until it is done, Europe will still rely heavily for its security on an unreliable US.

If Europe does not mobilise quickly in its own defence, liberal democracy might founder altogether. Today feels a bit like the 1930s. This time, alas, the US looks to be on the wrong side.

martin.wolf@ft.com

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The government of Portuguese Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is expected to lose a vote of confidence on Tuesday, pitching the country into its third general election in barely three years.

A majority of MPs are expected to vote against him, toppling his right-of-centre minority government.

While Portugal’s President, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, is not obliged to dissolve the assembly, he has made clear that he will if the government loses Tuesday’s vote, with fresh elections likely in May.

The confidence motion was tabled by the government itself, after the opposition Socialists announced plans for a parliamentary inquiry into Montenegro’s business dealings.

A company called Spinumviva, set up by Luís Montenegro, continued to receive sizeable sums from clients he had previously secured, even after he was elected Social Democratic Party (PSD) president and leader of the opposition in 2022, and had transferred ownership to his wife and two sons.

The legality of the transfer to his wife was questioned by the opposition, given that the marriage is one in which assets are jointly held; the couple have since made their sons sole owners.

But questions remain about the sources of the company’s income – which until a few days ago included €4,500 (£3,800) a month from hotels and casino group Solverde, whose gambling concession is up for review – as well as the identity of other clients, which the prime minister has declined to reveal, and the services Spinumviva offers.

The prime minister, a trained lawyer, says the firm provides consultancy services relating to data privacy laws, outsourcing work to external experts – given that his wife is a childminder, one son a student and the other a new graduate.

The Bar Association is now looking into whether the company is illicitly offering services that only lawyers may offer.

In recent days, Montenegro’s cabinet has approved a battery of spending and other measures, in what is being seen as a bid to show that it is working hard for the country.

The situation might seem to offer ideal conditions for far-right Chega, the third-largest party in parliament, to renew its attacks on corruption in politics.

Chega also benefited from the resignation of Montenegro’s Socialist predecessor, António Costa, who is now president of the European Council. His name had come up in a criminal investigation into government contracts, although he has never been made a suspect.

But in recent weeks, Chega has been hit by scandals of its own, with three of its MPs accused of crimes, including one charged with stealing suitcases at Lisbon airport.

Until recently, Luís Montenegro’s coalition with the conservative People’s Party was still ahead of the Socialists in the opinion polls, having narrowly won the 2024 general election a year ago.

However, they are now trailing the Socialists, led by Pedro Nuno Santos, who served as a minister under António Costa.

None of the major parties appear keen on a snap election – not least because they fear voters will not be enthusiastic at having to choose a new government when the current one has been in office for less than a year – and the timing is poor in geopolitical terms.

However, Portugal appears set on an unswerving path for May elections.

Not only has the prime minister chosen to appeal to voters rather than face an inquiry, a stance described as “cowardly” by the leader of the opposition.

But Pedro Nuno Santos has long pledged not to vote in favour of any government confidence motion.

In normal times, this election probably wouldn’t be of too much interest to the rest of the world. Around 40,000 voters choose just 31 parliamentarians, and it’s all taking place on an island that isn’t even fully autonomous.

But these are not normal times and this election is in Greenland on March 11, which means it could prove a starting point for further geopolitical upheaval in the Northern Hemisphere.

Firstly, because supporters of independence for Greenland hope the ballot may result in a strong mandate for Greenland’s complete separation from Denmark. Currently Greenland, a former Danish colony, is a self-governing territory of the latter.

And secondly, and probably most importantly, because US President Donald Trump has been talking about making Greenland part of the US ever since he was elected last November.

Greenland’s mineral wealth

Trump has frequently spoken of how it would be in the interests of US security to control Greenland. Since the 1950s, the US has run the Pituffik Space Base, in the northwest of Greenland.

It is the Americans’ northernmost post and plays a key role in missile warnings and space surveillance. Previously, during the Cold War, it was called the Thule Air Base and was there to send early warnings and initiate defense against potential Soviet attacks.

Other than security issues, economics might also play a part in Trump’s claims on Greenland. In the south of Greenland, there are thought to be valuable deposits of oil, gas, gold, uranium and zinc.

Thanks to climate change, which is thawing Greenland’s ground out, mining these deposits will eventually become easier. 

During his first term in office, in 2019, Trump offered to buy Greenland. The government in Denmark swiftly rejected that.

But this term, Trump has continued to express expansionist intentions, over Canada, the Panama Canal and Gaza, as well as Greenland.

Even before he took up office in January, Trump sent his son, Donald Trump Jr., to Greenland — although officially he was there as a tourist.

A few weeks later, a poll was published showing that only 6% of Greenlanders wanted their island to become part of the US, while 85% opposed to the idea.

In his speech to Congress early in March, President Trump addressed his desire again, directing his comments to the people of Greenland.

“We strongly support your right to determine your own future,” Trump said. But just two sentences later, he seemed to renege on that, stating, “I think we’re going to get it [Greenland] — one way or the other, we’re going to get it.” 

Foreign interference?

Given this, Greenland has had to deal with the possibility that there could be external attempts to influence the country’s vote — for instance, from Russia or China, both of whom are also pursuing their own security agendas in the Arctic.

Denmark’s national security and intelligence service, PET, warned of Russian disinformation in particular.

“In the weeks preceding the Greenlandic elections’ date announcement, several cases of fake profiles were observed on social media, including profiles masquerading as Danish and Greenlandic politicians, which contributed to a polarization of public opinion,” PET stated, although it did not link those accounts to any specific country.

Johan Farkas, an assistant professor in media studies at the University of Copenhagen, is familiar with these kinds of posts as they also circulate in Russian media. But he doesn’t think they’d have much impact on Greenland’s election because, besides Danish, most locals speak Greenlandic, an Inuit language.  

“Greenland is a very small and tight-knit community in many ways,” Farkas told DW. “And so, influencing fake accounts, or these kinds of things that we have seen in the past and in other elections, my assessment is that it’s not an easy thing to do.”

But that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to worry about. “My concern as a disinformation researcher has more been around how this plays out in macro-politics. Would we suddenly see Elon Musk hosting live podcast interviews with specific candidates or Trump endorsing specific candidates? That is a very problematic and threatening thing for a free and fair election,” Farkas argues, referring to the weeks before Germany’s own recent federal election.

During that time, US billionaire Musk appeared on social media with the leader of Germany’s far-right political party and US Vice President JD Vance called on German centrist parties to cooperate with the far right.

Political controversies

Since the beginning of the year, there have been a number of controversies around Greenland’s upcoming election. Reports suggest that influencers from Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement distributed $100 bills in Greenland’s capital, Nuuk.

Local member of parliament Kuno Fencker traveled to Washington where he met a Republican politician who spoke to him about how Greenland should become an American territory.

Media studies professor Farkas doesn’t think the danger has passed — the election will be held on March 11. “But,” he says, “I was more concerned about a month ago than I am right now.”

In early February, Greenland’s parliament, the 31-seat Inatsisartut, passed a law banning foreign and anonymous donations to local political parties. Danish donations are excluded.

And Trump’s offer to buy their country is not the only thing locals will be voting on in the upcoming election.

Independence from Denmark

The approximately 57,000 Greenlanders, who call themselves Kalaallit, are also worried about other issues. For example, which mineral resources their island should be developing and whether, and which, foreign partners should get concessions to do this.

The debate around mining revenues is part of the argument some make for becoming independent from Denmark. Allowing foreign interests to mine in Greenland would make Greenland less dependent on Denmark.

This is because “Denmark contributes over half of Greenland’s budget revenue to cover employment, health care, and education, with the annual cost of administrative support and direct financial transfers amounting to at least $700 million [€645.5 million] per year,” researchers at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, pointed out in January.

Independence is a long-term goal, Greenlandic Prime Minister Mute Egede said after Trump’s speech to Congress. “We do not want to be Americans, nor Danes; we are Kalaallit. The Americans and their leader must understand that,” Egede wrote on social media. “We are not for sale and cannot be taken. Our future is determined by us in Greenland.”

Opinion polls show that the majority of Greenlanders probably do want independence from Denmark but they remain undecided as to when and how that will happen.

And that uncertainty won’t change after the March 11 election either, says Farkas. “I think the most important thing is to zoom out and acknowledge that this is not a threat that goes away the moment this election is over,” he concluded.

“As long as this declared US wish to take over Greenland is there, there is a risk that we suddenly see an escalation of this kind of influence campaign.”

This story was originally written in German. 

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A sell-off in global stocks eased on Tuesday in the wake of steep falls on Wall Street fuelled by investor concerns over the health of the US economy.

Futures markets pointed to a small recovery in the US, with contracts tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 up 0.4 per cent and 0.5 per cent respectively.

In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.3 per cent, while Germany’s Dax added 0.4 per cent.

The Nasdaq Composite fell 4 per cent on Monday — its worst day in two-and-a-half years — while the S&P 500 index tumbled 2.7 per cent over fears of the economic impact of Donald Trump’s global trade war.

“US data still show an economy in decent shape, but investors are spooked by erratic policy messaging that is undermining consumption and investment,” said Guy Miller, chief market strategist at insurer Zurich. But “US recession fears appear overdone”, he added.

The euro rose 0.6 per cent to $1.090, meaning it has now recovered almost all its losses since the US election, as investors continued to bet on a better growth picture for Europe on the back of Germany’s “whatever it takes” spending plan announced last week.

The single currency was fuelled both by the start of talks between US and Ukrainian delegations in Saudi Arabia that Kyiv hopes can repair its relationship with Washington and pave the way for peace, and hopes that a defence deal in Germany will be sealed soon, said analysts.

Investors “just want to trade the positive narrative for euro at the moment”, said Kamal Sharma, an FX strategist at Bank of America.

The euro has had a lightning rally this month and saw its best week against the dollar since 2009 last week, as investors have increased growth expectations for the eurozone and trimmed expectations for interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

The US dollar, which has been dragged lower by concerns over the health of the world’s biggest economy, fell 0.4 per cent against a basket of six trading partners and is down 4.6 per cent since the start of the year.

European infrastructure and defence stocks — which have been rallying after Germany last week announced a historic deal to fund investment in the military and infrastructure — were among the gainers on Tuesday.

Germany’s largest defence group, Rheinmetall, rose 4.5 per cent and Italy’s Leonardo was 3.7 per cent higher, both having surged since the beginning of the year on defence spending hopes. Infrastructure companies also added to their gains, with France’s Schneider Electric up 2.1 per cent.

Asian stocks, which opened sharply lower on Tuesday following the US sell-off, recovered some ground. Japan’s Topix and exporter oriented Nikkei 225 index finished 1.1 and 0.6 per cent lower respectively. China’s CSI 300 advanced 0.3 per cent.

The shifts followed big moves on Wall Street where investors were unnerved by the rhetoric from senior US administration officials about the equity market falls. Trump said there would be a “period of transition” as the economy adjusted to a global trade war.

Technology and industrial companies led the falls in Asia. Taiwan’s chip manufacturer TSMC was down 2.7 per cent and Korea’s Samsung Heavy Industries retreated 2.1 per cent.

Analysts said some investors were taking profits after the sharp rally in US tech stocks over the past year.

“The whole [US] tech sector has risen so much since last April, even with the correction now, it has still rallied a lot,” said Wee Khoon Chong, a senior markets strategist at BNY.

“People worry this is going to be a meltdown, but I don’t think so,” he added.

“When you have a new, better option, people adjust, valuations adjust,” Chong said.

US Treasuries were also steady, with the 10-year yield up 0.02 percentage points at 4.23 per cent.

Oil prices rose, with Brent futures — the international benchmark — up 1.3 per cent at $70.16 per barrel, after a fall on Monday amid rising uncertainty over global demand.